Quick trivia question: Which NFL team has the fewest touchdown passes over the past three seasons?
Yes, incredibly deductive readers, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have just 46 total in the three years since Ben Roethlisberger retired. That they’re 29-22 in that span is incredible, as the next 14 teams with the fewest touchdown passes all have losing records since the start of 2022.
So as consistently as Mike Tomlin has managed to win without getting much from his quarterbacks, what could he do if he actually got above-average play there? Aaron Rodgers is finally joining the Steelers, and yes, he’s 41 years old, but even his lackluster 2024 production (28 touchdowns) or the 26 he threw in his final year in Green Bay in 2022 would be dreamy by Pittsburgh standards.
The Steelers went 2-0 last year in games in which they failed to score a touchdown, thanks to the leg of kicker Chris Boswell. The rest of the NFL went 4-29 in such games, so the Pittsburgh defense will be grateful for any consistent offensive scoring. The Steelers scored fewer than 20 points in six of their seven regular-season losses (and in their wild-card loss as well). They were 1-6 when they scored 17 or fewer, and 9-2 when they simply got to 18 points in 2024.
Can Tomlin extend his streak to 19 seasons without ever having a losing record? Pittsburgh’s over-under for team wins is right down the middle at 8.5. If the Steelers can get into the playoffs, anything is possible. In theory. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2016, and Rodgers hasn’t won a playoff game since 2020.
Here’s how the season might shake out:
Week 1: at Jets, Sunday. Sept. 7
PIT -155, NYJ +130
Those NFL schedule-makers know how to anticipate drama. So Rodgers, who has never faced a former team in his NFL career, gets to open his Steelers era against the team that just dumped him. New Jets coach Aaron Glenn faced Rodgers four times as Lions defensive coordinator in 2022-23, and Rodgers went 1-3 in those games, losing the last three meetings. Which side will be more motivated: his new team to back their new leader, or the old team to support their new QB (Justin Fields) against his old team? We’ll take the Steelers to set the tone on the road.
Result: Win, 1-0
RELATED: Aaron Rodgers vs. Jets among top 10 revenge games for 2025
Week 2: vs. Seahawks, Sunday, Sept. 14
PIT -120, SEA +100
Oddly enough, the Steelers and Seahawks have played 12 times in Pittsburgh and neither team has ever scored more than 30 points. This is a revenge game for receiver DK Metcalf, who played his entire career in Seattle before getting traded this offseason. We’ll take this game as a Rodgers-Metcalf coming-out party in their home debut with Pittsburgh.
Result: Win, 2-0
Week 3: at Patriots, Sunday, Sept. 21
PIT +100, NE -120
Rodgers lost at New England last year, leading the Jets on a touchdown drive to take the lead with 2:57 left, only to lose on a touchdown with 22 seconds left. Everyone knows Mike Vrabel as a Patriots linebacker, but he started his NFL career with Pittsburgh. And he’s young enough to have a history with Rodgers — in a 2006 Patriots win over Green Bay, Vrabel had 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble against Rodgers. New England beat Pittsburgh in 2022 with Mac Jones and in 2023 with Bailey Zappe, so doing so with Drake Maye isn’t farfetched.
Result: Loss, 2-1
Week 4: vs. Vikings, Sunday, Sept. 28
PIT +100, MIN -120
This season has Rodgers playing his former division in a remarkably steady pattern: Vikings in Week 4, Packers in Week 8, at Bears in Week 12, at Lions in Week 16. It would be a cruel twist if, say, a 1-3 showing in those four games puts a final playoff appearance in jeopardy. Rodgers had his least divisional success against Minnesota, going 17-12-1 in his career. We’ll call for a Minnesota win, which would be its first in Pittsburgh since 1995.
Result: Loss, 2-2
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. Browns, Sunday, Oct. 12
PIT -278, CLE +225
Playing Cleveland twice is a perk of signing with the Steelers. Not only is Rodgers 3-0 against the Browns, he has exactly three touchdown passes and zero interceptions in each victory. If Shedeur Sanders starts at QB for Cleveland, there’s a cool symmetry — Deion Sanders’ final NFL interception came (off Brett Favre) in the same 2005 game in which Rodgers threw his first career interception. Now, 20 years later, Rodgers could face off against Deion’s son. It’s still an easy Steelers win.
Result: Win, 3-2
As a rookie in 2005, Aaron Rodgers threw his first career interception in a game against the Ravens. In the same game, Deion Sanders recorded his final NFL interception. In 2025, Rodgers will play against Shedeur Sanders. (Photo by Sporting News via Getty Images)
Week 7: at Bengals, Thursday, Oct. 16
PIT +170, CIN -205
This is a tough draw with a Thursday night road game. Cincinnati is in the middle of a Rodgers career arc, facing the Packers the week before and the Jets the week after. Last year’s Steelers-Bengals matchup in Cincinnati was the quintessential Bengals game — they scored 38 points and still lost in regulation. The Steelers scored 44 points that day, then didn’t score more than 27 in any of the next six games. We’ll take Cincy in another high-scoring affair.
Result: Loss, 3-3
Week 8: vs. Packers, Sunday, Oct. 26
PIT +100, GB -120
To spend 18 years with one team and then face it as an opponent is exceedingly rare. Tom Brady had 20 years with the Patriots and then went to Foxborough with the Bucs in 2021 and won. This game being in Pittsburgh lessens the vengeance aspect, and the last time the Packers won in Pittsburgh was with Bart Starr at quarterback in 1970. The streak ends after 55 years.
Result: Loss, 3-4
Week 9: vs. Colts, Sunday, Nov. 2
PIT -175, IND +145
Rodgers’ career record vs. Indianapolis is his worst against any team: 1-4, including a loss last year on an Anthony Richardson touchdown run in the final minute. Rodgers has lost four straight to the Colts, despite throwing 11 touchdowns against three interceptions in those games. The Steelers, however, have beaten Indy in each of the past two seasons, both on the road, so we’ll take them to get it done at home and get back to .500.
Result: Win, 4-4
Week 10: at Chargers, Sunday, Nov. 9
PIT +160, LAC -192
The Steelers continue to hover in the middle, just as the oddsmakers predict. This is a Najee Harris revenge game against his old team, which will lead to another tough road setback.
Result: Loss, 4-5
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Week 11: vs. Bengals, Sunday. Nov. 16
PIT +100, CIN -120
We had the Steelers losing to Cincinnati in Week 7, but they should be able to salvage a split at home. Last year, this game was perhaps the low for a struggling Pittsburgh offense, held under 200 yards in a 19-17 loss to end the regular season. Cincinnati’s defense is usually more gracious than that, so expect more scoring in a home Steelers victory.
Result: Win, 5-5
Week 12: at Bears, Sunday, Nov. 23
PIT +110, CHI -130
This should be a source of confidence for Rodgers, who has a 24-5 career record against the Bears, including an 11-3 mark in Chicago. The Bears should be improved under first-year head coach Ben Johnson and with an emerging Caleb Williams, but Rodgers at Soldier Field is tough to overcome.
Result: Win, 6-5
Week 13: vs. Bills, Sunday, Nov. 30
PIT +164, BUF -198
When I ranked the toughest four-game stretches for the entire NFL in 2025, this Week 13-16 grind for Pittsburgh was No. 5 overall, with three really tough opponents in four weeks. The Steelers could be a good team and go 1-3 in this stretch. I’ll take Josh Allen, who swept two games against Rodgers and the Jets last year, to improve to 5-1 all time vs. Pittsburgh.
Result: Loss, 6-6
RELATED: 10 toughest 4-game stretches in 2025 NFL season
Week 14: at Ravens, Sunday, Dec. 7
PIT +310, BAL -395
Rodgers and Lamar Jackson have never squared off, but they are set up to meet twice in the final five weeks of the season, potentially with the AFC North title hanging in the balance. Pittsburgh lost twice in Baltimore last season, including a 28-14 defeat in the playoffs in which the Steelers trailed 21-0 at halftime. There’s a chance that the Steelers could see the Ravens in the wild-card round again, which could mean a third Rodgers-Jackson matchup.
Result: Loss, 6-7
Week 15: vs. Dolphins, Monday, Dec. 15
PIT +114, MIA -135
Here’s a break from that nasty stretch, and likely a win to get the Steelers back to .500 with three games to play, keeping alive the hopes of avoiding a losing record for Tomlin. Rodgers’ final game with the Jets was a four-touchdown home win against Miami, his only four-TD game in the past three seasons.
Result: Win, 7-7
Week 16: at Lions, Sunday, Dec. 21
PIT +200, DET -245
One last NFC North game for Rodgers, and it’s arguably the hardest. He’s lost his past three meetings against Detroit, including season finales in 2021 and 2022. The Lions will have much on the line this late in the season, and it’s another tough setback, putting the Steelers’ playoff hopes in jeopardy.
Result: Loss, 7-8
Week 17: at Browns, Sunday, Dec. 28
PIT -130, CLE +110
This is a Christmas week reprieve for Pittsburgh, right? Cleveland has won the past three home meetings vs. Pittsburgh, and the Browns have held the Steelers to 22 points or fewer in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. We’ll trust the Steelers to get it done here and set up a huge season finale on their home field.
Result: Win, 8-8
Week 18: vs. Ravens, Flex Game
PIT +170, BAL -205
Would 9-8 be good enough to get into the playoffs? In the AFC, eight 9-8 teams have missed the postseason in the past four years, so even a win here for Pittsburgh wouldn’t be any assurance of getting Rodgers back to the postseason. He’s been a strong late-season quarterback in his career, with a 70% win rate in December and January (compared to 63% overall). Baltimore should have at least seeding on the line, but we’ll take the Steelers to close out the home victory.
Result: Win
Final Record prediction: 9-8
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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