Bitcoin is pressing against key resistance levels again, showing resilience after a deep March correction. While price structure is stabilizing, miner behavior and overall momentum suggest the next directional move could be decisive. Here’s a fresh breakdown using the daily chart, 4H trendline, and the miner reserve metric.
Technical Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi
The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, BTC is holding just below the 200-day moving average, located around $88K, after its mid-March dip toward $74,000. Price action remains trapped between $80K support and the 200-day moving average, forming a compression range.
The RSI also hovers near the neutral 50 level, signaling indecision. While the recent bounce is constructive, buyers must push through the $88K barrier to shift the structure bullish again. Until then, the price remains vulnerable to further consolidation within this macro range.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows BTC breaking out from a well-defined descending trendline, which had acted as dynamic resistance for over a month. This breakout now has multiple confirmations, with price consolidating just above the trendline.
Momentum has cooled slightly, as reflected in RSI flattening, but the higher-low structure remains intact. A sustained move above the $86K–$88K range could trigger an acceleration towards the $92K resistance level, while any drop back below $83K could reintroduce downside pressure toward the $80K support zone.
On-Chain Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi
Exchange Reserve
Bitcoin miner reserves continue to decline steadily, now at their lowest level in years. This suggests consistent miner distribution, which historically reflects profit-taking behavior, especially during strong rallies.
While declining miner reserves can reduce long-term sell pressure if BTC is sold slowly, sharp drops in reserves, especially during local price peaks, can mark distribution phases. For now, the trend indicates miners aren’t hoarding, so buyers must rely more on spot-driven demand and institutional accumulation to keep momentum alive. Yet, a reversal in this trend could add fuel to any upside breakout.
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