Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Sharp Sides
Oddsmakers consistently point out that NFL Draft odds are a haven for sharp bettors. Feazel noted that in particular, professional money is gravitating toward Over/Under props – essentially, when a player is selected.
“That’s really where the sharp bettors have come in,” Feazel said, while providing an example. “Ashton Jeanty Under 9.5, which is now -450. That’s a sharp side this week. His outs are either the No. 5 or No. 6 pick.”
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the fifth pick, and the Las Vegas Raiders are No. 6. That price on the Under likely won’t attract the public betting masses; it would take a $450 bet to profit $100 (total payout $550).
But if you think Jeanty is going No. 5 to the Jags, that’s -125, meaning a $125 bet turns a $100 profit (total payout $225). Or if you think the Boise State standout is going No. 6 to the Raiders, that’s +125, meaning a $100 bet would profit $125 (total payout $225).
Regardless, Jeanty is creating liability for Caesars.
“We would like to see Jeanty drop out of the top 10. That would be good for the book,” Feazel said.
More Popular Plays
Feazel noted three other markets getting attention in NFL Draft odds, all related to pass-catchers.
- “The first wide receiver market has been going back-and-forth all draft season,” Feazel said of a battle between Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan and Texas’ Matthew Golden. “It looks like it’s finally going to one side, to McMillan.” Indeed, McMillan is now the -350 favorite, with Golden the +260 second choice. No other wideout is shorter than +2500 at Caesars.
- “The Cowboys to take a receiver, that’s getting a lot of attention,” Feazel said. Dallas has the 12th pick, and wideout is a -200 favorite to be that selection. And the Cowboys could well be the team which settles the McMillan/Golden debate.
- “The Colts going with a tight end has gotten a lot of action, whether it’s Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland. So we’re not gonna want to see a tight end there.” Indianapolis has the 14th overall pick, and Caesars has tight end as the -115 favorite to be that choice. On the related NFL Draft prop bet of which tight end is selected first, Penn State’s Warren is the heavy -925 favorite, while Michigan’s Loveland is the +320 second choice.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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