The 2025 MLB campaign is still in its early days with less than 20 games in the books, but there are already a few teams and players raising eyebrows with their hot starts.
The question is: is it something that’s sustainable for the duration of the 162-game season?
FOX Sports’ MLB reporters Rowan Kavver and Deesha Thosar answer that and more in this week’s MLB roundtable:
It’s early yet, but there are potential breakouts everywhere. You’ve got Jonathan Aranda batting nearly .400 and leading in doubles for the Rays, Kyren Paris is crushing the ball for the Angels, Brendan Donovan leading the majors in hits, and that’s far from a full list. Is there a potential April breakout that you’re feeling is for real?
Kavner: I believe the Aranda breakout is real, but considering he gets to feast almost exclusively on right-handed pitching, I’ll take the all-around improvements from Spencer Torkelson. He was solid two years ago, but this looks like an entirely different type of breakout for the 2020 top overall pick. After some mechanical tweaks, Torkelson’s hitting the ball harder than he did when he launched 31 homers in 2023, and he’s pulling the ball in the air at a considerably greater rate. Now, I doubt he can keep up his .270+ batting average when his strikeout rate is over 30% and his batting average on balls in play is over .320, but the underlying numbers back up the early power display. Entering the year, there were questions about his long-term future in the Detroit lineup. Now, I could see a 40-homer career year ahead for the former Arizona State standout.
Thosar: Judging from all that red on Ben Rice’s Baseball Savant page, his offensive breakout sure doesn’t seem like a fluke. The lefty swinging Rice entered Thursday tied for the fourth-highest rate in MLB for barrels per plate appearance, trailing just Aaron Judge, Jackson Merrill, and Pete Alonso. He’s absolutely crushing right-handed pitching (1.203 OPS) and, thanks to his improved bat speed, his 95 mph average exit velocity is in the 96th percentile. Rice has been a revelation for the Yankees so far this season, and his breakout performance is the reason they climbed to the top of the division. Much like last year, when right-hander Luis Gil and eventual 2024 AL Rookie of the Year award winner only jumped into the rotation because of an injury to Gerrit Cole, Rice is only getting this opportunity because designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is dealing with tennis elbow. Stanton isn’t close to returning, but if Rice keeps this up, the Bronx Bombers will figure out a way to keep him in the lineup no matter what. Like Aaron Boone said, Ben Rice rakes — and he seems like the real deal.
What about a potential breakout player on the mound?
Kavner: Shane Baz. The former first-round pick was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball in 2022 before dealing with elbow issues and undergoing Tommy John surgery. After returning to action with a promising second half last season, he’s on another level right now. His fastball has ticked up, and opponents are a combined 2-for-38 with 20 strikeouts against his curveball and changeup. Baz’s breaking ball in particular looks like one of the best offerings in the sport, and he trails only Logan Gilbert for the highest strikeout rate among qualified starters in the early going. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rays choose to protect his arm the rest of the season — he has never thrown 100 innings in a professional season — but the stuff is there for a breakout.
Thosar: Shane Baz is emerging as a potential American League Cy Young candidate after three brilliant starts this year. Though the 25-year-old former top prospect has been around since 2021, he entered the year with fewer than 120 major-league innings under his belt after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. He struggled in spring training this year and seemed like the odd man out of the Rays rotation until Shane McClanahan sustained an injury. Suddenly, Baz has more than capitalized on his opportunity in the rotation. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA, 2.17 FIP, and 0.84 WHIP across three starts and 19 innings this season. His 38% strikeout rate and 32.4% strikeout-to-walk ratio are both ranked second in baseball. It’s early, but he’s been absolutely dominant.
A win in April is a win in the bank for later, but are there any teams among the division leaders that are already showing you reasons that they won’t stick at the top?
Kavner:I’m looking mostly at the American League. I said before the season I think the Rangers win the West, and I’m sticking by that, but right now it’s their pitching carrying them. The offense has yet to bounce back the way many expected after last year’s regression. Only the White Sox and Rockies have scored fewer runs this year, and they’re in first place despite the lowest run differential in the division. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ rotation outside of Max Fried looks like a mess. The non-Fried starters have a combined ERA over 6.00. In the National League, the Padres look like the best team in baseball. That said, they also play in the sport’s toughest division, are already dealing with injuries and aren’t as deep as recent iterations of the club.
Thosar: The Texas Rangers are the only division leader with a negative run differential, so that’s something to keep an eye on. But the AL West is much weaker this year, so they might just hang on to the top spot. Elsewhere, the Yankees’ starting pitching continues to be worrisome. New York’s rotation owns a 4.96 ERA that’s ranked 28th in the major leagues. Southpaw Max Fried has been excellent (3-0, 1.88 ERA) in place of the injured Gerrit Cole, but he was supposed to be the 1-2 punch to Cole. Without their staff ace, the Yankees’ starting-pitching depth has been immediately tested and the results are, well, not good. Carlos Rodon has surrendered a minimum of four runs in each of his last three outings. Marcus Stroman has given up 12 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched. Veteran Carlos Carrasco has been a victim of the long ball. Getting Clarke Schmidt back should stabilize the rotation a bit, but they desperately need Luis Gil to return. Unfortunately, he hit a setback in his rehab from a lat strain and is delayed 10 more days before he can begin his throwing program. The Yankees should be major players for a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, but it will be up to the Aaron Judge-powered offense to get them there in one piece. The Toronto Blue Jays are Boston Red Sox are lurking.
The Baltimore Orioles are in the AL East cellar after a mostly quiet offseason. What do they need to do to turn things around for this talented roster that still hasn’t fully capitalized on that talent?
Kavner:They need to hit the way they’re capable of doing. It was an odd winter of spending to try to make up for the loss of Corbin Burnes in free agency, and early-season injuries to Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin have thinned what was already a questionable assembly of starting pitching. So, this team simply can’t be a middle-of-the-road offense if it wants to contend. They need to outslug their opponents, and a team OPS under .700 won’t cut it. Jordan Westburg’s hitting .196, Adley Rutschman’s hitting .222 and Gunnar Henderson’s running a 38% strikeout rate. The Orioles desperately need their top hitters to get going.
Thosar: General manager Mike Elias had multiple options this offseason to improve Baltimore’s starting pitching, and through all of those choices, he decided giving $15 million to the 41-year-old Charlie Morton was the best way to replace ace Corbin Burnes. Morton has responded to those expectations by coughing up as many earned runs (18) as innings pitched in four starts this season. The rotation has the 29th ranked ERA in baseball. The O’s did not replace their ace with an ace, opted for depth instead, and that approach is backfiring in an unsurprising way. Elias and the O’s have little choice but to wait until the trade deadline to improve the pitching staff, while hoping that their current and injured arms (Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Bradish) help turn it around soon. Besides, there has to be more consistency from the offense, and the talent is certainly there to put up better numbers. As the weather warms up on the East Coast, so too should the O’s bats. But any offensive surge has to overpower the team’s pitching woes for Baltimore to be a legitimate threat in the AL East. No matter how you slice it though, this no longer looks like a 101-win team.
What has surprised you the most — a player, a trend, a team, anything — from these first few weeks of the 2025 season?
Kavner:The Braves’ struggles. We knew they were going to miss Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. early on, but those absences can’t explain — or fully fix — what’s going on right now in a 5-13 start. The only National League team that’s scored fewer runs than them is the Rockies, their biggest offensive addition is suspended, their pitching staff ranks in the bottom five in ERA, and their reigning Cy Young Award winner is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA. It’s still early, but this is quite the hole they’ve dug themselves. Behind them, a more positive surprise has been the success of the Mets‘ pitching staff, particularly in the rotation. Despite losing Luis Severino and starting the year with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas on the shelf, they have the lowest starters’ ERA in MLB by a long shot. More difficult tests are approaching later this month.
Thosar: The Angels have completely altered their expectations coming into the season. Their biggest offseason acquisitions were left-hander Yusei Kikuchi and designated hitter Jorge Soler, and the roster seemed too thin, as usual, to act as any real threat in the league, let alone in the AL West. Compounded with the annual health concerns for Mike Trout, the Angels’ 99-loss season in 2024 seemed due for a repeat. Now, though, the Halos look primed to break the longest postseason drought in the major leagues. Trout has crushed six home runs, tied for third-most in MLB. But it’s impossible to talk about the Angels’ hot start without mentioning the impressive turnaround of Kyren Paris. The second baseman’s OPS has soared to 1.218, all while launching five home runs, batting .349, and stealing five bases through his first 16 games. The 23-year-old made changes to his swing this offseason after working with Aaron Judge’s personal hitting coach, and now Paris is doing his best Judge impression. Shortstop Zach Neto is on his way back from injury, so the offense might just be waking up. So far, the Angels are scrappy and surprising.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
